The World of Bookmakers

1. Basics

Below I present basics of bookmaker’s enterprises, assuming that the reader doesn’t know anything about it.

a) Bookmakers

On the Internet you can find at least 20 bookmaker enterprises having their own websites in Polish language. Most of them offer, offered or will offer extras for new player enrolled. A lot of them offer also some kind of promotion for people already enrolled.

All of them are registered outside of Poland, in tax paradises ( Malta, Antigua and Barbuda) to avoid paying tax for gambling games, which in Poland is 10% (even another 10% of tax on income, if you win over 2 500 Polish zlotys). Because these enterprise are registered there, according to local law, they don’t have to pay taxes. There isn’t any tax.

So enterprises in Poland like: Profesjonal, STS, Toto-Mix etc, will be losing customers step by step on playing on the internet, because there are lots of advantages of that.          The most important advantages are:

-          lack of 10 % tax from every receipt (especially from defeated one),

-          higher rates than “terrestrial” bookmakers,

-          very attractive extras and promotions,

-          possibility of betting at home,

-          possibility of betting live,

-          comfort of betting and checking results.

Every bookmaker places into his regulations this kind of clause: “Enterprise has the rights to cancel any bet, if offered rate was incorrect.     Some of them (bwin) stress also that they have  the rights to cancel the bet after closing the betting  - in case they did an obvious mistake.

At “terrestrial” bookmakers, I suppose, there isn’t such clause. But in practice, when we play a longer period of time, we can easily find if the bookmaker did the mistake (and give us the return) or not.

Bookmakers do mistakes from time to time, for example writting the rates down inversely.  Do not play those bets. In 99,9 % situations like that it ends with returnig the rate. So you may waste time and energy.

Bookmakers enterprises differ one from another by the offer of extras, bets for games, kindless of support (people working for bookmaker, being in touch with customer). Before

you join particular bookmaker , you had better check it at a ranking. HERE.

This rating has been created, because of cases of bookmaker firms which rise, offer you extras, encourage and collect customers (and sometimes also collect data from their credit cards), and then close the enterprise – and it’s the last time you can see your money.

Fortunatelly, there aren’t many enterprises like this and you can avoid them effectively. (more informations in chapter “Safety”)

b)  Bookmaker’s site

What is on it? There are always 3 things:

-          up-to-date informations/promotions,

-          quotations offer

-          space to log in.

You can bet only when you register yourself, giving your personal data and plug your account in bookmakers (to have money for playing). The simplest way of plugging your account is transfer to an account.

To create your account you have to look for something like “Register” and the rest is a piece of cake. (back to the start).

b) Few words about rates

Rates may be presented following ways:

-          decimal: for example 1,4 (mostly in Europe),

-          fractional: 2/5,

-          moneyline: -250

Mostly (or even always) you’ll be meeting with decimal form and I’ll be using it. The higher possibility of winning by your bet is, the lower is the rate offered by bookmaker. Obviously, the same rate doesn’t mean the same chance to win. (look chapter “Introduction”).

To calculate possible prize we have to multiplicate our bet and rate, e.g.

100 zl (bet) × 1,40 (rate) = 140 zl (winning)

so our profit will be 40 zl, or our lost will be 100 zl.

If we bet more than one game on receipt (accumulate bet), we will have to calculate

AKO of receipt (arithmetic product of rates of all games), in order to find the amount to win (back to the start).

d) Advices

The most important thing at bookmaking is to have our own strong rules. Breaking it often ends unpleasantly. Make a list of your own and keep to it consistently.

These are mine rules:

-          Bet only such amount of money, which you won’t regret to lose ( and you always may lose),

-          Play with system. It’s good to have clear goal,

-          Check your winnings and losses,

-          Do not try to compensate the losses  immediately

-          Bet max. 2-3 games on one receipt (personally I play 99 % single games)

-          If you play two receipts in parallel, do not bet this same game ( e.g. home and under)

-          If you intuition suggests you not to play, do not bet. Intuition is as important as logic.

-          Try not to act emotionally – make only rational tips.

The first point is the most important one– when you break it you won’t stand up again!!!

Greed  - is not worth the trouble. If you lose (and it will happen for sure some day..), deal with it. Trying to get money back at once often ends with even bigger losses.

100 % of my most painfull loses were caused by trying to compensate for and a greed.

Being more experienced always costs a lot. Learn from others’ mistakes. A lot has already been done. (back to the start).

e) Extras

To attract new customers, bookmakers offer a lot of extras. For new players usually are additional amount on your account (generally 30, 50 or 100 % of deposit up to certain amount) or freebets (usually 25 Euro). Where is the catch and what happen with them?

First, the bookmaker gives us one time some  amount of money depending on how big deposit into our account we paid. To get all amount with bonus, we have to obey some rules. We usually have to “turn” our amount of money  - to bet, and a value of those bets it’s a multiple of deposit paid and/or received bonus.

Usually it’s an amount x 3(deposit+extra). How to do it cleverly? I’m going to tell you how.

If we paid in for example 100 zl and got 100 % extra, then we have 200 zl in our account. If 3-multiple turnover with minimum quotation was required, we will have to bet games on accumulated amount 200 zl × 3 = 600 zl, to be able to withdraw the money from account.

Only games with quotation 1,5 or higher will be included in turnover. We are allowed to get  any amount after making transactions which required.

At some of bookmakers we ”free” a part of amount to withdraw with every bet we make, or bonus is only paid after making a “turnover”.

Freebet consists in betting from our own money. If we win, it will be accounted for as a normal bet. If we lose, we will get back money we bet, but only up to an amount fixed by the regulations. To pay out that given back money, you have to play it 3 times (back to the start).

f) How to bet?

Before you will be allowed to play, you have to create your account at first. Give only true personal details. You don’t want to have troubles while withdrawing money, do you?:) When you have registered, you will be given the mail confirming your registration. Then you have to log in your account and pay in money using one way of paying in a deposit, e.g.

- bank transfer – find details of account you have to pay money in and what to put in the title of transfer form. Cheap way, but it takes a time.

- credit card – don’ give the protecting numbers to the support, on a site you can give the data of your card if the site is coded, but keep being suspicious, you usually have to pay, but money are transferd at once.

- virtual wallets – if you used a bank transfer (it takes few days) log in another time. Status of your account should be visible all the time. Choose the game you want to bet.

It should appear a window on the left or right, including chosen event.(or games, if you has chosen more than one game)

Type an amount of money and klick “bet” or something like that. You should see accumulated amount of your bet. If everything is correct, klick “confirm”.

Your bet has just been made and it will appear different options to continue  -depending on particular bookmaker, unless bookmaker gave you limits (limits bets you can pay, usually from a few hundred zl to one thousand zl). Then you’ll be informed what amount of money they can accept from you for given bet.

Sometimes there can be mistakes:

- “you don’t have enough money on your account” (try to lower your amount of money if you know that you have that money)

- “amount of money is to low” (minimum amount of money will be displayed)

- “other mistake” (log out and log in again – it should help, I usually don’t bet this game, because when I bet, I always lose).

Balance of your account should cut down of amount of bet you made. (sometimes klick F5 to refresh the site).

Your bet you will find in tab called “My account” or “In progress”.

Use your intuition with a lot of things. Read FAQ particular bookmaker if you have any problems. If anything else fails then contact the support. A good player can find all important information. (back to the start)

2) Introduction

a) Why do the bookmakers earns?

I will explain it on the example (the example in more convincing than the lecture)

Argentina vs Paraguay (Copa America) 1.55 3.45 6.00

These numbers are: winnings of „host”, draw, winnings of “visitors”.

Let’s assume we have bet on every possibility so our all potential winnings will be equal. Suppose our prize is 100 zl. We bet on next options followings amounts:

100/1,55=64,52

100/3.45 = 28,99

100/6.00 = 16,67

Let’s add all amounts on the right side.  It turned out, that if we wanted to bet all possibilities we would have invest 110,18 zl to win 100 zl. As we can see on proportional divided bets, bookmaker earns about 10 % in that case.

Exactly on this differences bookmakers make the profit - giving quotations this way to have its allowance between 5-15 % (depending on bookmakers, popularity of game, sum of bet already made etc.) We say “weak quotations” about bookmaker having big allowence.

b) Asian handicaps

It is  one of more interesting way of betting football matches. It is very popular way of playing. You don’t have to know everything about it, but it’ s worth to know a little about what does it consist in.

The risk in asian handicaps, 2-way bets (1 or 2) is smaller than in 3-way bets (1, ×, 2). We will easier and more often meet an event with the chance of 50 % than 33 %. So I think it’s worth to look at.

Asian handicaps have following advantages:

- return of costs when it is a draw result,

- possibility lowers  from 33 % system, (1, ×, 2) to about 50 % (1,2),

- bets’ margins are definitely smaller,

- minimum quotation isn’t lower than 1,70 and bets are aligned,

- depending on particular handicap we can win even if “our”  team loses

- in asian handicaps ¼ in a case of draw score and with a lack of winnings of our team we lose only a half of amount bet

I will tell you about Asian handicaps using as an example a match between Lazio and Roma.

Handicap: 0:0

If it’s a draw our money is returned in 100 %, if we hit a winner we win bet. If we hit incorrect, we lose the bet.

Handicap: 0:1/4

Choosing Lazio. Lazio’s win means winning the bet, with draw – return of a half of our money, second half lost, Lazio loses – we lose our money.

Handicap: 0:1/2

Choosing Lazio. Lazio’s win means winning the bet, draw and losing the game means we lose.

Choosing Rome. Rome’s win or draw means wining the bet, Rome’s defeat we lose the bet.

Handicap: 0:3/4

Choosing Lazio. Lazio’s win with minimum 2 goals means wininig the bet, Lazio’s win with only one goal – return of a half of our money, second half won, draw or defeat – means lost bet

Choosing Rome: Rome’s win or draw means wining of the bet, Rome’s loses with one goal – return of a half of our moneyj, Rome’s defeat with more than one goal, means lost bet.

Handicap: 0:1

Choosing Lazio. Lazio’s win with two goals difference means wining the bet, wining with only one goal – return of a whole money, draw or defeat means lost bet.

Choosing Rome: Rome’ win or draw means wining of the bet, defeat with one goal – return of the whole money, Rome’s defeat with more than one goal – lost bet.

Handicap: 0:1 ¼

Choosing Lazio: Lazio’s win with minimum two goal differecne means wininig whole the bet, wining with one goal, half of money returned, second half loses, a draw or defeat we lose bet.

Choosing Rome: Rome’s win or draw meand wining the bet, defeat with one goal half of our money returned, second half wins, defeat wih more than one goal – lost bet.

Handicap: 0:1 ½

Choosing Lazio: Lazio’s win with minimum two goals difference means wining whole bet, wining with one goal, draw, defeat – lost bet.

Choosing Rome: Rome’s defeat with one goal, a draw or wining means won bet. Defeat with two goals or more – lost bet.

Handicap: 0:1 ¾

Choosing Lazio: Lazio’s win with three goals difference means wining whole bet, wining with two goals – half a money returned, second half wins. Wining with one goal, a draw or defeat – lost bet.

Choosing Rome: Rome’s defeat with one goal, a draw or win means won bet, defeat with two goals half a money is returned, second half loses. Defeat with more than two goals – lost bet.

Handicap: 0:2

Choosing Lazio: Lazio’s win with minimum three goals means wining whole bet, wining with two goals return of all our money. Wining with one goal, a draw or defeat – lost bet.

Choosing Rome: Rome’s defeat with one goal, a draw or wining means won bet, defeat with two goals – return of the whole our money. Defeat with more than two goal – lost bet.

Attention: Not all bookmaker return money when it’s a draw (depends on kind of sport) (back to the start)

3. The Guide

These advices are a translation from a book recommended to me from a very serious source from England “Fixed Odds Sports Betting”.

Bets aren’t for sure for fearful person. There’s many proofs showing that only a few can beat the bookies and have profits in a long term. Despite the fact that only a few players can achieve a success, wining with bookmakers isn’t only a dream. On  condition that players learn how to gain an advantage, bookmakers offer investment only for them who search for more thrill than collecting low-rate return of ours savings.

The main subject of this book is to encourage to play at bookmakers and to think more analitic about a strategy of your bets, about markets to invest in, about sort of bet we make, and also bet’s value and numerical approximation, about ways of benefits from the begining and of the thing the most important of all – about managing money and checking a risk. By thinking clearly and evaluating reliably the player may hope for up-sizing his own success. Without that, the bookmaker will always win.

Fix a found for playing (bankroll).

Any player shouldn’t bet on without keeping long-term tabs on, if he only wants to avoid loss. The safest protection is to fix a fund only for games, which doesn’t ruin our bills. If that loss happens, player should take under consideration the possibility, that the bets aren’t the best way to invest money.

Study the sport you have chosen and be selective.

There are thousands of bookmakers to find every week and for everyone the bookmaker want to put for bet against you. To prove your chances in dealing with these disadvantages, it’s rational to concentrate on one, maybe two key sport markets. Study them thoroughly.

For smaller, not so popular markets such like dart, volleyball, cycling, snooker or biathlon, bookmakers often knows less about them than fans of these sports and have only one or two specialists. Be selective and don’t bet because you must, but only when you feel that you recognised line of bets. The worst thing may happen when you avoid betting is to end with zero balance.

Keep exact notes for all bets you have made, their quotations, amount of money you have bet and benefits or lost showed up. Keeping the history of your bets will help you to analyse your advantages and disadvanrages, to your valuation of benefits or to tell if you’re talented to gain an advantage. For advising services keeping and showing notes is obvious. Without them customers don’t have an idea what profit the advisers gain.

Valuebet or no bet

Winning bets are only which bring us money. True, but you can’t win all the time. Without winning more often than the bookmaker estimates you will have won, losers ensure that money for betting will stay red. Look for to recognise value of quotation using machine comparing the bookmakers’ quotations, quantitive and qualitive techniques of predictions, and professional “feelings” for theirs achievement. Find the value and winners will be found at once.

Test your systems of forecasts.

The players take different aproximations for predictions. Some of them prefer to study subject, reading all news regarding to every event and to make their own opinions based on informations about injures, teamspirit, motivation. Others prefer to analyse information about conditons and providing ranking systems for foreseeing the score at the next session. Anybody else takes the numerical analysis of prognosis, tests and tries to find the meaning.

Do not trust the false connections which can change connections between the foresee hypothesises and current event scores. Remember, if someone watch long enogh and hard on datas, you can find relations between one or more events. Really only a few players turn off to have gains in a long-term.

Try to recognise lucrative bets markets.

There are all kinds of bets from the match bets, ante post, to exact score for handicaps. Every player has his favourite types of bets, but it’s clever to focus on these, where the bookmaker has limited his advantage.

You can find this situation where number possible scores is minimum – 2 – and contain the Asian handicaps in soccer, American sports bets and 2-way bets on many other markets. Given the bookmaker’s allowance is lower, because the bookmaker can let this happen and there’s no room to make manuvers on his side of less value quotation he makes.

Bet singles.

Over decades the bookmakers imposed restrictions for possibility of single bets where the player needed only one score of the match. Since of the explosion of the bookmakers enterprises on the internet, these limits have fortunately disappeared. But unfortunately the players attracted by bigger payments from multi-bets still bet these unconvenient bets in large numbers.

For players earning a lot of money it’s true, that their gains may be bigger, but the risk for searching them ( bigger allowances and lower hit quotient), will always be bigger. Singles may offer pretty good payment with no need to worry about losing your money for bets. The greedy often makes the biggest problems. Why do you try run before you learn how to walk?

Who wants more infomation should see the article “The Singles or AKO?”.

Bet the favorites or low quotations.

Not very popular, but true, at least in the soccer bets, is a favour for high-quotation favorites. Proved for European soccer markets, exists thanks to aversion to risk of most bookmakers who could more overprice quotations on selections which expose them to more difficulties by offering value at high rates.

Betting only low quotations won’t be enough to protect the  line of bets for bookmaker, but for bookmakers who have chosen that way, average margin for the favorite is lower. Betting low quotations means you’ll be winning often and your bankroll will be exposed to smaller risk of high levels of bets rates. Don’t bet the favorites only because they are favorites. Bet them because you believe that contains real value and the bookmaker made a mistake.

Compare the bookmakers’ quotations.

This is necessary. If one of bookies offers 2.00 and other 2.20, it doesn’t make sense to take the lower quotation. Perhaps new accounts must be opened to get the chance for benefit. To reckon the bookmaker’s reputation and cost of bet (if they are generally, or they are small), it shoul be easy. Consider also the betting exchanges where you may bet against other players instead of traditional bookies. Despite allowance paid from won bets – usually 5 % - possible quotations on platforms are better because there isn’t allowance from overcome. Remember: Don’t bet only because the bookie offer the higher rate. Make sure that the rate contains the value.

Recognise you preferences for risk.

Do you search for the risk or do you try to avoid it? Answering this question will show all your strategy of betting and managing your money. Risk-taking people are pleased with betting high quotations and high multiples, prefer the thrill of big winnings gamble rather than the system ”to earn a little, to lose a little”.

Some of gamblers are ready to chase their lost money by making rates higher after every lost bet. Be careful: this way doesn’t warrant gains while the risk of failure is significant. If you want to play safe, a plan of single level is enough or perhaps quotation politics to win a constant money with every bet.

Betting a percent of you bankroll by single percent quotation a banque or more advanced Kelly’s quotation may give great profits for experienced player - but he must be prepared for longer periods of losses in exchange for safe greater day of payment at the end of the line.

Always analyse your bets’ notes.

Money in a bank from won bets is a wonderful feeling, especially when you’ll believe that yours skill and evaluations have earned that money. However try to avoid to much self-confidence and to find out if your profits simply could’t have been bigger. If it’s coincidence, profits may not happens again. Try to avoid unexplained factors which may ruin your success.

Learn how to lose.

Perhaps it’s the most important lesson: the player should learn how to lose. It may sounds oddly, but it’s generally realization how to manage losses and deal with failures, which are often a key to success. Being patient in experience of long bad series-  and a strong will to resist the trend of chasing losses – they are the most difficult part of gambling games.

Be successful here , and your chances to avoid complete defeat will increase greatle. Simple staying in the game is the half of battle. If you are not in this game, you cannot win, no matter what skills you are  to beat the bookmakers’ quotations. (back to the start)

Player’s psychology

Psychologists  have noticed that the people mostly thought too highly about themselves and were excessively sure of their knowledge and skills. They also tend to overestimate quality and range of that knowledge, and underestimate the risk. They also believe they are in control of occurring processes. It has been observed that people became too much self-confident especially when they had earlier achieved a success in some new discipline. (Nofsinger, 2001) (back to top)

1)Cognitive trends

regression to an average

People often draw a conclusion about totality from too less sample which is not representative.  So, for example, if club X wins 2 matches in the row, it won’t mean they are going to win also the next game. Regression to an average – overestimating rarely actions and attitudes and underestimating  the often ones.

Player’s trap – it consists in illusion that after long series of heads people think probability of getting tails is increasing. But in fact, every event is independent, so the chance to get tails remains ½.

We often  show incorrect belief that the precision of the expectations we make should be increasing with getting more and more information. That conviction is so popular because of underestimating random processes and looking for casual connections everywhere.

Illusion of being in control is a conviction that a chance to succeed is much more than it really is. For example, dice players throw stronger if they want to get higher number, and lighter wanting the lower one.  We start to think too highly of ourselves when we feel we can control what happens.

We can list 5 things strengthing the illusion of control.

a)The choice. Choosing the match himself the player confirms himself in the conviction he has bigger influence on the course of events than in the situation when he would bet it on randomly.

b)The sequence of the scores. If success appears a few times in the row, the player believes he has control over that. And it doesn’t depend on whether the scores are random or not. The more we know about particular problem, the bigger sense of control we have. A lot of players with the basic knowledge feel they are able to control the results of the meetings.

Information

The more information about given match appears, the stronger illusion of being in control we have.  When we perceive some new information, we mostly pay attention to its unusualness passing over importance of that message. Therefore, the news not always make our knowledge wider.

Involving

The stronger involving the player shows, the bigger illusion of control he has. When we monitor the particular match, it often seems to us that we look after its score. But we really have no influence on that.

Reverse thinking (I have known it would be like that)

Psychologists noticed that our knowledge about something what has already happened modified our former opinions about probability of that event.  In situations like that we change convictions if it is likely to happen or not. Unfortunately, very few people are able to predict the results of matches regularly. The market is surprising.

Interestingly enough, that even after an event which was very unlikely, a lot of people consider that it might have been predicted before. Because of that effect it’s more difficult to notice mistakes we have made. We often include those information to our knowledge, what may cause disturbance of values hierarchy. Such information plays the main part, because specific and sure things are concerned. Next, it causes a change of retrospective analysis of that problem. Another data make up only the background for that which might have happened (in our opinion).

Regressive thinking effect also helps us to keep self-esteem. Mistakes in predictions we have made might have lowered our self-confidence and self-esteem, and could have caused the fear. That is why we justify ourselves that we have known it was going to happen. It helps us to keep self-esteem we have had up till now.

“The anchor effect”

This effect towards dependence of our estimates on some point of reference (initial value). If we try to evaluate something at first by ourselves, and then we get to know what is the course for it  - we mostly modify our conviction. Sometimes the course itself (without an analysis) creates sure, but not always correct opinions about the tip. When, for example, we get known (after long and reliable analysis) the course for some event is 1.50 we will bet it. However, if we see the course 2.50 it may make us hesitant whether we should to bet. To obtain some “anchor” we look for facts from the past and for some point of reference.

The trap of availability

I would ask you to answer a question: are in Poland more killings or suicides?  It seems to most people that numbers of killings are much higher. But the reality suggests there is more suicides than killings. Why do we think like that? First of all, because of common accessibility of information about murders. The media rather don’t say about suicides. So we have an impression that murders happen significantly more often.

Stephen distinguishes two kinds of availability: based on experience, and related to memory and imagination. First one, basing on experience, consists in placing more trust in something we have already seen before. Additionally, we have proclivity to ignore the fact that the sample is neither large enough, nor representative.

Memory related accessibility depends on how easy we can revise our experience. It’s easier to remember exceptional, torrential events, causing emotions. It is also connected with the range of our knowledge in the given issue and with the nearness in space and time.

2)Motivation trends

What are players guided by, while taking a decision? They usually want to maximize a profit and minimize a risk. How we will show, their really preferences are much more complex.

Theory of perspective

It is  a theory describing really human behavior in a front of risk. It takes into consideration the empiric data towards making decisions in uncertain conditions. How and why is human behavior different from the expected usefulness model? It is related to two things: usefulness and probabilities.

Usefulness.

There is an apt saying : “The more the loss hurts us, the more we enjoy the profit”. We feel the loss of 500 zl more intensively than the prize of 500. The more we earn, the less we are pleased with the same prize in the course of time. We can say the same about the losses – the more we lose, the less the same loss hurts us.

With that phenomenon one more interesting thing is connected – ownership effect.  It means, we higher value things we have ourselves, than others’ goods.

Probability

People tend to overestimate low probabilities and underestimate high ones.

Effect of avoiding the losses

It means that players avoid closing the balance in minus at any price. Passive players reluctantly end with negative balance and they wait for the better times, while active players would rather make it up for quickly and don’t treat any decision as finally closed. As a result of a haste and reckless decisions they often lose even bigger amounts of money.

Effects of “drown” costs

It’s important result of avoiding losses.  Let’s imagine situation like that: Our collegue asks us to analyse some match. However, after the analysis it turns out that the match is not distinguished by anything special.  Let’s think , what match would we choose, if we wanted to bet on something? We probably would choose that analysed match. Why? We will have an impression that it is worth to bet on, if we already have spent a lot of time on it. But throughout the transmission  we find that our team lose the goal as first. We now may start to feel the fear of wasting our time and effort. So, we place a bet on them a little money in addition. We do it mainly in order to make the average price (bet on them) higher! We reason like this:  if we had spent so much time on that, and then we gave so much money, it will be now a big loss  to waste it and not to make a profit. So we resign from another games  and instead of looking ahead we focus on our former involving and we are guided by that while making decisions.

The rational player doesn’t take into consideration former profits and losses by taking new decisions. Irrational effect of “drown”  costs consists in willing to stick to decision we once made.  if it only was connected with significant effort , time to spend on it or high amount of money. The stronger is the attachment for something, the greater effort we put into that transaction.

Mental book-keeping

It is irrational filing of different investments and thinking about each one in a perspective of losses and profits. There are a few another things related to this issue.

Ownership effect.

Let’s imagine, that we receive an inheritance as shares placed in Company X. They have been there for 20 years. Would we like to sell it indifferently after so long period of time, to place them into more profitable investments? The researches show that people prefer fixed kind of investment , generally tend to keep  inherited form and don’t want to change it seriously. They consider it better in a sense.

Status quo effect

How the researches explain, we usually reluctantly change existing conditions. It grows significantly in the situation when the change would be complex.

We are often aware of profits from particular modification, but despite that we would rather leave it as it is. Lot of people show high levels of that attitude.

Attachement effect

This is something very similar to status quo effect. However, in that case we get attached to the company, people or things we have met for a longer time. If we receive member shares of the firm we had worked for 30 years, we won’t be able to sell acquired parts so easily. We got used to the company and people, this is why to sell the shares means to break the ties.

Trap of the last scores

Our decision about next games often depends on scores achieved so far. It’s common that after some success we tend to keep playing (even more risky), because we play “not for our own money”. If we had won 100 zl and then we lost 50, we will say “tough luck”! (mechanics “on the house”) But the good player takes care of his money!

However, after many successive failures we are usually discouraged and show unquestionable less penchant for risk (passive players). Such situations often push us into the fear of trying again.

But it’s not so simply.

It happens, that after a loss we just want to get our money back. The defeated not always escapes a risk. (active players) He sometimes looks for a chance to compensate for the losses. Person who haven’t reconciled himself to the loss is also willing to take a part in any gambling game in order to make the losses up for. If we hadn’t made those losses, we wouldn’t take a part in the next game.

Orders/instructions effect

Suppose we participate in two undertakings. We earn 20% from one of them and lose 20% on another one, and we can continue both. Most people would rather resign from the first option confirming the profit and hoping the loss will be compensated. We call it “effect of dispositions”. Why do we act like that? We strive for a sense of pride related to profit and avoid the regret being  a result of a loss. But is it rational to resign from rising transaction while we keep the slipping one at the same time? If you answer “yes” for one of following questions, you are under the influence of described effect.

- If the investment only goes back to the level, I will sell it straight away

- I have lost so much, that I absolutely can’t resign now

- I will leave it as it is, I probably won’t lose more than I’ve lost so far

When is the loss the most severe for us? We compare ourselves to others. When we already have taken improper decision, we will feel most comfortable if many people have made similar mistake. When the player see other people succeeding, it’s difficult for him simply to reconcile himself to the loss. Then it seems to him he have made a mistake he could have avoided. Closing the balance he feels strong regret.

A lot of people use tips from another tipers. For emotions’ sake it’s a good solution. If the advice turns out to be right, the player will attribute all the success to himself and explain it by his own knowledge and skills. In different case he will blame the advisor, what will reduce his sense of regret.

Short-term avoiding of losses

It happens quite often than we may earn more in a longer period of time .  Time is working for us. But many people don’t have that long-term perspective and as a result they don’t take optimal decisions.

The researchers carried out following experiment.

They informed some group of university workers about real annual interest rates of return of bonds and shares. They asked, what proportions of their investments would they set for their pension fund. Potential investors decided for proportion of 60% for bonds and 40% for shares.

The second group was given 30-years interest rates of (return) (certainly, it was better for shares during so long period of time). As a result they decided on 90% for shares. The first group didn’t notice, that high rates (of return) not only justify taking the risk, but also guarantee generous prize/bonus.

Cognitive discord

It’s a feeling of unpleasant tense caused by information which was at variance with our sense of being reasonable person. People have some outlook and the picture of themselves and sometimes those convictions are conflicting one with another. The discord appears the most often  as a result of being involved in action inconsistent with our conviction we are sensible people. It causes a discomfort, and willing to reduce it. We reduce that feeling by changing our behavior to make it compatible to discord element. We do it often looking for positive aspects of our decisions (“We really had many favourable situations, but we didn’t make use of them’), or justifying our behavior – by changing one of cognitive elements (to make it compatible with the acting.), adding new elements consisting with our behavior and choices. (I hadn’t known that X has been  going to play. If I had known, I wouldn’t have bet.) A person asked about the chance to succeed overestimates it almost everything (back to the start).

Determining and superstitions.

Advertisements often make use of our unconditioned reflexes in order to encourage us to do something. Let’s imagine a mouse: we feed it turning on the light at the same time. With time

it will be enough to switch on the light to make the mouse drooling -the animal brain signals that

there soon will be some food.

The woman show in the advertisement of gambling company X makes  us excited.  Then, the logo of that company appearing itself may associate for us with euphoria or at least may increase the chance for the same effect. In gambling games  the player is a subject to constant process of strengthing (profits) which is strongly irregular. It’s the impulse strong enough to encourage us to take a part in a game. (causing excitation – that is: the company X is as good as a woman)

We should notice, that there is no universal way to predict a score of the particular game (though, there are universal recipes how to win – look the chapter “surebets”.) Every game keeps the player in suspense. It is conductive to superstitions rising. We look for reason-result relationships, because we can’t predict random event. We suspect false connections and relationships between some signals and decisions we make. If our thoughts were confirmed a few times, we will act reflexively – particular reaction=profit. The we often become disappointed –(“we did everything properly, and it didn’t work”). They are science aspects shown above. But I wonder whether our subconscious plays some part in that (some situations are analysed in subconscious, we are not aware of this process ad we don’t know why our reaction is proper)

The text above was written on the basis of Piotr Zielonka’s work “Behavioral finances”.

The limit for betting

What is the limit?

The bookmakers have to cope with situations when they make a mistake. By writing down thousands rates a week, it always may happen that for some game the prices are written inversely or the analytic doesn’t estimate them properly. And in such case it is necessary to limit accepting bets for given option, to change rates or to take the offer back at all and/or to make returns.

The bookmakers are also subject to risk in a case of too high numbers of bets accepted for one option. The can then change rates or to set limits in order to even out the level of payments for all the options.

The limit may appear while you are trying to make a bet. You will see then an announcement on the screen “The limit for that event is 100zl”. Limits usually don’t have constant value and it depends on particular meeting and on the value of received bets. (so , among other things, on popularity of the event).

AT some bookies it can happen a withdrawal of one from the options. (mostly bwin). Wee can see then, that we can bet for example only on “host” team, and for “guests” there are lines instead of the price. The majority withdraw all the event from the offer.

Why did the bookmaker give me the limit for the bet? There may be a few reasons.

-You had been often playing for to large stakes  in a short time and you were considered a professional player

-You wanted to play for mistake of a bookie (inflated rates) which had limited the pool of bets taken for this option for all players (for example at Interwetten I can’t bet on for more then 200 zl). They did it seeing mass betting on that tip. So try to play at a bookie like that sporadically, to delay the moment of giving you the limit.

-The bookmaker has fixed for all the limit of stakes we are allowed to bet on a month.

-You tried to bet on a hardly probable event for more stake

-Perhaps there are also some another reasons.

What limit do bookmakers give? It may be for instance 1.63 for the bet if you want to bet on for some mistake or 40 zl at Interwetten, if you play there often. It may be also a few hundred zl at Bwin, as well as high limits at Expekt or even huge at canbet or Pinnacle. But sometimes there are no limits at all, E.g at a such company as Betfair. Generally, the higher SBR ranking, bonus, more customers and wider offer the bookie has, the greater  limits we can expect there.

We can usually find general limits’ values of winnings in the bookie’s regulations or in main rules. I didn’t check it, but I think that it gives some reflection what limits we can expect.

In a case when we play surebets, the basic protection is to bet on at first  at a bookmaker where we suspect the limit is fixed, or which has the similar rates to other bookie’s rates. (if we get a limit, we will just play at other bookie for similar price).

If we firstly had bet on at those and the limit appeared, we will have to find somewhere similar or slightly lower  rate -  and there may be a problem.

We can also use diversification  in a case of surebets we don’t play for all amount of money at once, but we divide it between a few bets, betting on every  stage at other bookie. If the limit appears, it will be less troublesome.

Another option (avoiding) is to play at a different bookmakers the - best at those which have limits. When we choose from few hundred bookies available it is no problem.

How to check limits at the bookie?  We as a general rule do it practically or look for informations about it.

We are going to recognize a kind of amounts – if they are hundreds, thousands or more money. As I have written above, it is worth looking at regulations how large  bets we may make. It should give us general idea or possibility to compare it to other bookies.

If you created an account at a new bookmaker and you don’t know what limits there are, do always assume there are low. Increasing stakes, you will meet a limit at last, or won’t meet it – you will orientate while memorizing what bets were accepted. (or whether it was a popular event or not)

 

6.Valubet

This, what you are about to read in moment, is the most important thing you must understand if you want to bet. Lots of people don’t know nor what valubet is neither how the bookies earn money, so in a longer time their defeat is unavoidable.

Sometimes the bookie makes a mistake estimating quotations for particular game and one of the rates  will be higher than the objective chance of hitting it. In this situation we say that the bet has “a value” arises “valubet”.

“Valubet” (value+bet) – it’s the bet with positive expected value fitting the operation: p*k>1

To know if any bet will give us the valubet we need to know 2 things: the objective probability of success “p” and the quotation “k”.

 

Ex.1:

Tennis, USA courts, Andy Roddick (USA) – Nikolay Davydenko (RUS)

This is an example of typical valubet with a large value.

Davydenko has the rate 3,00 despite he has a higher position in the ATP ranking. Based on programmes or  his own intuition the player estimates that the both competitors have chances 50/50, (p=1/2). We Calculate:

Value = p*k = 1/2 * 3,00 = 1,5 > 1

The score is higher than 1, so it’s valubet and player can bet on Davydenko with an assumption the he estimated correct the chances of winning both players. In this situation Davydenko really won 7-6, 6-2.

There are tipers who bet only high rates looking for valubets exactly. In this strategy there are lots of missed games, however the good players can achieve significant profits. Players’ psyche plays the important part because such tipers have to be immune for long series of losses which may appear easier than in case when players bet low quotations.

However, betting on high prices is usually supported by information according to that a particular bet is worth playing (for example: with declines in caused by information about sickness in a team).

The second type of players playing  valuebets  - they are people betting low quotations (usually k < 2,00).They less often will be meeting the black series but usually they can’t achieve as large profits as high quotation’s players achieve.

The valuebets are marked by fact that “higher value” p*k may be found more often by high rates.

With low values of valuebet these anomalies from standard (correct bet) will be small.

 

Ex.2:

The quotation for “visitors” in the game Udinese – Lech is 6,00. We can see that it decreased in Asian markets to 4,00. It means  that quotations for 1 and X rose automatically and have a smaller chance to win, and Lech’s chances rose.

The value of valuebet p*k can’t be estimated correctly in this case, but how the experience shows such a big fall of the quotation is rather the valuebet (p*k > 1 and in a longer period of time with correct bets will bring the profits).

The fall even to 5,00 would probably give the valuebet, too. Sometimes in this case you can play “X2” to be sure. You can find the bookie with the quotation 6,00 and play. What and if play it’s the matter of knowledge and experience.

That kind of tip will be the valuebet if falls are great and rapid enough.

 

Problems with finding the valuebet.

Lots of people asking me how I know that the particular game has the same probability to happen. The answer is simple – I never know that.

The probability of some event can only be estimated.

Some players use their intuition, others check the tables or use some algoritms (like: multiply the won games with X, add draws multiple x Y and lost games x  Z, and than divide it by number of games).

Some people also use web sites where you can find ready probabilities (but they don’t look what these probabilities deal with and these are usually only statistics and you shouldn’t take it for granted) or they use neuron webs (the artificial intelligence as a computer program).

 

Ex.3

Soccer: Greece – National B, Panseraikos – Pierikos.

This is a suggestion of looking for valuebets for beginners.

I’m pointing out this example of looking for the valuebet was used by myself and it may be correct or not. It’s only the estimate on the basis of quotations given by the bookies. This kind of valuebets you can find, e.g. Wettportal.

In our case the quotation for hosts is 1,35 at one bookie and I bet it. At 10 others is 1,20. One bookie has 1,25 for hosts.

Without calculate p*k it’s obvious that one of the bookies inflated the quotation. The question is if he did deliberately, or if he has some vital information which other bookies don’t have? Because the rate is much smaller than 2,00 it’s the favorite of the game. I bet “the hosts” on some conditions:

-          I choose the games having on Wettportal “min. profit 20 % ( the same for others),

-          It’s not the quotation for visitors,

-          It’s not the English league,

-          I prefer to bet sports which don’t have 3 possible scores, but not the kind of under/over (e.g. the handball, the volleyball),

-          the Expekt didn’t give the highest quotation (usually if inflates so he knows what he’s doing),

-          I bet if the highest quotation gave Interwetten (he mistakes often),

-          At least 5-10 bookies have already gave the quotation,

-          The quotation is between 1,20 – 1,80

In this example the game finished 5:0 (however it isn’t always so nice).

One lost valuebet may suggest that we lost money (especially with high quotations if we lost),but  in series of bets become some kind of regularity and well should give the profits in a longer period of time when well used.

 

FAQ of valuebets

The topic of valuebets is very wide. It’s like driving a car – you may know well the rules, but when try it by yourself, you will know how it is. I’ve got more questions and answers.

What is the strangest thing in valuebets?

Won bet may be wrongly made bet, and lost bet may well done.

During  longer period of time this common knowledge will be very important. In short period of time someone may be just in luck.

How do we usually choose the games?

We try to bet the game: Milan – Reggina. We have to check where the highest quotation is (not every bookies do that; compare the scores you can find in “Links”). After finding the rate 1,50 we bet the game, because Milan must win. They are favorite, because they are just better players, they are in the great shape and eventually play at home. But you shouldn’t bet for these reasons only.

Suppose that then the quotation starts falling even to 1,30. There are some players betting

rates like that. Do you think it’s rational? Will it be the valuebet?

To have the constant interests from betting, you must be smarter than the bookies. They have couple hundred of games to estimate. Your estimates must be better than theirs in a few cases though.

Unfortunately, thinking as most people do and betting favorites no matter the rate  - means you will achieve nothing important. The bookies usually know the situation in teams like Milan (popular information) and give the quotations in order to do not let you win.

REMEBER – the bookies aren’t charity organizations. Do not behave like a mob. Be clever and be an individualist. The bookie is a tough opponent. It’s estimated that 1-2 % players are able to beat him.

 

How do we choose the games?

After choosing the particular game think what is your chance to hit and what quotation would you expect? To beat the bookie you have to compare your objective chance to win the game with the quotation given by the bookie. (table “Probability” in program “Rest” in the part “Download”). If given quotations doesn’t fit you expectations, don’t play it only to come around if you were right.

No one can predict the future. So don’t judge after only one score if your valuebets was bet correct. Sometimes two types may be wrong and sometimes wrong bets may be right by accident. Every game has its own random factors which can’t be anticipated. The score of single game doesn’t tell you if you bet correct.

What do we start from?

Generally there are two ways to estimate if the games you choose are valuebets:

First requires checking at least 50-100 types in my opinion. With smaller sample may appear intervals of falls and ups which deform the results. Don’t bother them.

Second way is checking which way the quotations change. If you  had played the game by the rate 2,10 and the next day the rate fell to 1,90, it’s probably the valuebet. Especially if the game is not very popular. Regardless of the score you can be satisfied because you noticed the mistake of bookie who had to adapt the quotation to the rate estimated by yourself).

There are also other methods allowing to make a profit without waiting for the score (e.g. surebets or middle). In my opinion, after reading this text you will have no problem with answer for the question: “how to do it”?

At the end I’m going to give you hypothetical rates associated to the objective probability (on the basis of value = p * k = 1) – the worksheet in the program “Support” from the part

” Download”:

1, 33 → 75 %

1, 50 → 66 %

2, 00 → 50 %

3, 00 → 33 %

4, 00 → 25 %

To be more familiar with the valuebets I suggest you to read my text “Valuebets”. In some parts it’s pure mathematical language. If you don’t understand something, go further.

 

The mathematical methods.

The reflections below will help you to understand the subject of games’ marketability  - from the mathematical point of view.

 

Ex. 1

The first game: the host 3,00 and winning chance 40 %

The second game: the host 2,50 and winning chance 48 %

The both game are typical valuebets

Value = p*k = 3*0,40 = 2,50*0,48 = 1,2 > 1

The both games are worth playing if we estimated correctly our winning chance. If we had to choose, it’s clear, it’s better to choose the second game because we have the bigger chance of winning and the black series will appear random.

In the example above this comparison is simple but in more complicated situations you can count estimated value (an average return from bet – value) and so called the standard variation which is the measure of risk.

In my opinion the estimated value is comprehensible (in both game is equal and for example with the quotation 100j is 120j). To explain the aberration I will show it as an example:

 

Ex.2:

We flip a coin:

In the first round we may lose or win 10 zl with chances 50 % - 50 %

In the second round we may lose or win 100 zl with the same probability. Which game will have the bigger standard variation?

Our intuition says that the second game will be more risky. The bigger amount (lose or win), the risk is higher. Similarly like the quadratic function (the further from zero the higher risk). For the second game the standard variation is bigger.

The second example shows that playing with progression for AKO is more risky with higher AKO for the particular system.

Generally, the lower quotation and the bigger value = p*k, it’s worth playing this game and it’s less risky. (back to the start).

 

7. Surebet

                a) What’s the surebet.

Surebet is the bet which is 100 % sure. It’s the set of bets which gives you 100 % win no matter what the score is. You can’t lose. (back to the start).

                b) The examples of surebets

Ex.1

The simplest surebet you can imagine is to find the rate for a heads 2,10 at one bookie and for tails 2,10 at another if we talk about single throw with the same symmetrical coin.

This’s only the hypothetical bet because we really don’t find it. But it’s comprehensible intuitively: the quotations 2,10 – 2,10 give surebet. Betting the both options gives us winning no matter what the score is which I show you in a moment.

Usually the bookies would give the quotations for this game 1,85 – 1,85 or 1,91 – 1,91 or even 1,95 – 1,95. These examples differ one from another by the amount of allowance taken by the bookies.

How to count it that’s the surebet?

This case is simple because it’s obvious if we bet 10 zl with the quotation 2,10 on the tail and 10 zl with the quotation 2,10 on the head in this same throw that whatever goes head or tail, we win 2,10*10 zl = 21 with investment 10 zl + 10 zl. So we win 1 zl betting 20 zl. So it’s surebet 5 %.

 

Ex.2

Let’s take more difficult situation which has different rates. For example, one bookie gives for particular game 1,55 – 2,30 and another 1,33 – 3,00.

Looking for the surebet we’ll be betting the highest quotations, in this case 1,55 – 3,00. Do they give the surebet?

It appears they give the surebet 2,2 %. What does the value mean? From the example above, it’s a percentage value which we win “without any risk” betting surebet. I gave a quotation mark because betting the surebets without proper knowledge is risky. (differences between the bookies).

To make sure if we have the surebet we can check it using a simple calculator assuming that for 1,55 we bet 10 zl. Then our win is 15,5 zl. For the second bet we must bet enough to get the same value of win. We divide 15,5 zl/3,00 and get 5,17 zl which we must bet for 3,00. Wins in both cases are equal and are 15,5j with amount of money 10 zl + 5,17 zl = 15,17 zl.

The best way is to use this pattern: x*y/z = w, where:

X – the quotation at the first bookie,

Y – the amount of money we want to bet at the first bookie,

Z – the quotation at the second bookie,

W – the amount of money we must bet at the second bookie.

It turns out  that the value of the surebet doesn’t depend on the value of the amount of money if the win in both cases has to be equal. It means if we’d bet 100 zl with 1,55 so for 3,00 we have to bet 51,7 zl and surebet is still 2,20 % (back to the start).

                c) What do we use the surebets for?

The surebet is multi-purpose. To understand them you have to know the conditions of bonuses which you find in the part “Basis/Bonuses”. Here some of them:

-          to transfer money between accounts depends on which team will win,

-          to safe and quick turn the bonuses – only taking the bonuses. *enrolling in the bookies from this site you can earn without any risk couple thousand zlotys.

-          for profits (usually 1-2 %)

-          to use it as a bureau de change if we play at two bookies and we have accounts in different money.

I will explain the transfer of the money on the example:

At the bookie A you bet, assume,  100 zl by 3,1 rate and at the bookie B  -200 zl by 1,55. (How do we choose the amount of money knowing the quotations? Look below).

In both cases your prize is 310 zl. If you win at the bookie A we may say that 200 zl transfered from the bookie B to the bookie A and you earned 10 zl yet (because you gave 300 zl and win is 310 zl).

For safe and quick turning the bonuses you can use the method above, choosing the surebets in this way to transfer from the one account to another. For the example above if we had the bonus at the bookie B and at the bookie A we can put the money into, so immediately the bookie’s B bonus became our property and it we didn’t need to fit conditions of bonus. (because we don’t have any money).

If we win at the bookie B, so we earned for the turn 200 zl (let’s say from required 600 zl). Situation has to be repeated until fitting the conditions of bonus or to losing money at the bookie B, but winning them on other account(s).

Playing for profits requires a lot of money. If somebody doesn’t have large amount of money, winning doesn’t satisfy him enough.

Using as the bureau du change it the most complicated but I will try to explain it (rather only for advanced ones).

Let’s say we have a betfair (a platform of bets for players) 100 euro. The quotation at the bureau de change is 4 zl/euro. So ours 100 euro has the value 400 zl. And we want the quotation 4,5 zl/euro taking every 1 euro (from this 100 euro) like had the value 4,5 zl.

To implement this higher quotation we have to find such surebets where on the betfair we have really high quotations (5,00 or more). Betting high quotations we have a big chance to lose this particular bet on the betfair but we’ll win on the other account in zlotys. If we lost 25 euro on account we have to notice that and we have another 75 euro to lose. When we win we must add win and do this till we get 0 euro.

In the moment when we lose whole 100 euro like we planed, we have change our euros with quotation we estimated before.

When we’ll win on the betfair, amount of money we can lose may increase up to for example 200 euro. We have to play to lose the money set before  … (sometimes it’s frustrating and risky, because it may increase very fast if we hit any “surprises”).

Such process like imputing facts some kind of changed reality it’s so called “mental accounting” which is often players’ mistake (more information in part “Player’s psychology”). Though, in some cases it can be reasonable.

I don’t recommend this bureau de change tactic using surebets too often or never. Only advanced players can take such opportunity in consideration.

To be aware of the importance of case, I suggest to calculate how much money you can win losing in this way 100 euro with 5 zl/euro but also how much money you can lose winning 200 euro in this way.

                d) Are these bets without risk?

If we bet two opposite events, so potentially we should win at one bookie or at another. It will be like that if the particular game will end and we really bet on the opposite game.

The problem shows up when the game will be aborted, delayed or will be walkover or we’ll be having problems with betting particular game. There are possible screw-ups.

- regulations may differ from each other in case of not finishing in normal time (usually abort, delay, walkover, change of field, riots of fans).

- we bet at one bookie and at we meet the limit and we won’t be able to finish the surebet.

- we bet at the one bookie and meanwhile the another we were just about to bet changed the quotations or even backed up the game.

- we bet at the one bookie and the another required the particular game was on the coupon with min. 3 others games (I met this situation a few times at bet-at-home in the lower leagues).
The game is called in different ways (given different dates, the teams are changed from host to the visitor (it doesn’t deal with neutral field), the score is counted with the overtime at the one bookie and at the another without the overtime. (differences like these you can find at ice-hockey, MLB)).

- when surebet is above 5 % it’s not worth think of it (on free sites with the surebets will be “stale”) – one bookie could do mistake and can return us (every bookie shrines it in regulations when gives us a wrong quotations. Usually you can recognize if he estimated incorrect or did a mistake writing in the quotations).

- Internet will shut down or will be slowly because of large number opened programmers.

- your mom will interrupt you and gives advices to not to bet because she knows that.

- the bookie did the obvious mistake – for example: for win is 1,71, for handicap (+1,5) is 2,10

- the last advice: NEVER bet after drinking any alcohol (unfortunately I know this situation from my life).

For these reasons above many people regard that playing surebets isn’t worth it because losses may be much bigger than potential profit (got without any risk allegedly) (back to the start)

What surebet may help us, and which one may be harmful? What kinds of bookie’s mistake are there?

Suppose, we have two events.

First one:

                   1        X        2

 

1 bookie      1,30    4,50    10

 

2 bookie       1,50    3,50     7

 

Surebet: +1,12%

 

Second one:

 

                 under      over

 

1 bookie        1,80        2,1

2 bookie        2,20      1,70

 

Surebet: +7,44%

 

The question is: What to do? To play one of them, both of them or neither?

The answer: to play only first one. In the second case we can see at once, that the person writing the rates down has exchanged columns one to another and has written down the rates inversely. (1.7 is near 1,8, and 2,1 is near 2,2) – don’t play it! (troubles it  the only thing you usually can get from such game. You perhaps will receive a return because of the mistake)

However, in the first surebet we can see the rate couldn’t have been written down by mistake. The allowance at every bookie is about 8-9%, so it’s normal (look the chapter ‘Introducing”). Some bookie has overestimated or underestimated “host” team. Comparing other bookmakers’ rates and analyzing by ourselves we can suspect which one has made mistake. Sometimes it is worth only playing valuebet. In any case, since I have been playing it has not happen yet to get a return from a game from the first kind.

If the bonus is concerned,  we should remember then betting on ‘opposing” events doesn’t count for turnover. As a general rule we can bet on X and 2 (in event 1X2) and it is not threatened as opposing event. But sometimes it may be differently (betgun), so we should get to know regulations of particular bookie – how does it look there.

Back to the point: usually we have to do everything efficiently, because the rates change quickly at some surebets. Well-known saying: “Time is the money” is confirmed there. Does it follow from that, we had better not play 2-way bets? No! We even should play bets from this kind, because we don’t need a lot of time to make them. I can give you some example of bet we can make.

 

                 

                    

                   under   over

 

1 bookie          1,60    2,30

 

2 bookie          1,80    2,10

 

You had better resign from surebet also in a situation, when the bookmaker might have made a mistake by writing rates down. For example, in our events would be following rates:

 

                    1         X         2

 

1 bookie       2,30    4,50      10

 

2 bookie        1,50    3,50      12

 

What disciplines are advantageous to surebets and what are not?

 

I have become convicted the most sure for playing surebets are football matches (especially from famous leagues). However, we have to be careful (to compare regulations before the match!) if we bet on Balkan league, when matches are often cancelled, fights happen, political situation is unstable and so on. Once I became disappointed that way myself, probably in Romanian league (but it was my fault, because it turned out I could have written to support and at Sportingbet they might have cancelled the rescheduled match). The most risky market is perhaps tennis, because it’s regulations differ one from another the most, and rescheduling meetings is an order of the day.

I can add we should be very careful in hockey (mainly NHL). In that discipline the bookies have different ideas whether under/over is counted with extra time, or without it. At Money Line it is similarly (only two options). We really should read the regulations carefully before we start betting in new discipline.

I also was beaten in situation like that – in XII 2006, losing very high amount, because the match ended in 3-3 in statutory time. I bet on over 6.5 at unibet (extra time is not in force),and under 6.5 at Sportingbet (extra time and penalty kicks have to add one goal)

Certainly, I didn’t get to know the regulations before the match.

23.02.2008 –similar slip-up happened to me, this time at betting on basketball match.

Match Indiana Pacers – New Jersey Nets was written down with 1.00 o’clock at Bwin (I bet on “visitors”).

I had noticed it a few times before, but then I failed. The match ended at 23.02 with a score 113-103 for Indiana. It turned out that bwin accounted for my bet, and it still was visible at Betfair – but with opposite rates.

I bet on by rates about 1,652,90 (the market at betfair was not stable yet, and you can conclude from that something is wrong). Thus, the booper at bwin (all the stake) and at betfair (a part).

Take notice of time at betfair. In NBA they often play matches every day. At betfair the different time is taken into account and shown, not the same as in Poland. So if you bet on event taking place at night, it may be counted for next day.

In baseball we have to pay our attention to pitchers. The change in any team can mean the troubles. I haven’t orientated more yet in that subject because I don’t like American sports very much.

If you are interested in boxing, then notice that one of the readers lost a lot by betting on fight Wladimir Klitschko vs Hasim Rahman.  In ended in 7th round and 40th second.

That man bet on over 6.5 rounds at Pinnacle and he lost in accordance with the rules. At Unibet he bet on under 6,5 rounds and also lost justly.

Read the regulations of sports you want bet on…

Before you make bets.

The notes by events are very important (back to the start)

 

What should we have to play surebets?

It would be the best to make the worksheet in Excel (or download it from my page for free)

It is almost necessary if you don’t want to waste the time on calculations on a piece of paper. To write down quotations and one of amounts is enough. The change is calculated automatically.

The second important thing is writing (as a comparison) bookies’ regulations, which you use while betting “your” disciplines. I have already done it for some bookmakers in a given file (regulations). You don’t have to make data up for date very often. You can look at it once, maybe twice a year. But it doesn’t change actually.

Third thing you should do is to find and get to know pages giving surebets and the highest quotations for particular event. (in case the quotation changes at some bookie)

You can find pages of that sort in a section “needed links”. Add necessary pages to “favourite” tab to not waste time on looking for them.

 

Can we prevent the slip-up?

You had better avoid it:) Suppose, you found such surebet (+0,18%)

 

              1         X         2

 

1 bookie   1,70     3,50     5,00

 

2 bookie   1,50     4,00     6,25

 

3 bookie   1,65     3,40     5,50

 

4 bookie  1,60     3,30     5,25

 

It is typical case of surebet. At about 0,1% (3-way) problem with returning stake won’t appear. There is the question again: to bet on or not?

If we play surebets for interest then it’s not worth even to log in and to take a risk that some price will change and we will lose. If we want to turn the bonus, then it is a good tip – but not perfect. Take notice of the fact that the quotations at bookies 1, 3, 4 are not similar to bookie 2, and if 2nd bookie changes prices, we may lose on that. For the rates 1,70, 3,50, 5,50 we lose 5,28%.

If the nearest rates were closer to 4.00 and 6,25, we would feel more comfortably, knowing that we can bet on at other bookie when rates changes – not losing so much (or not loosing at all, when rates are the same). It is always good to be particular about near numbers.

Would I bet on this surebet? It depends on the purpose which I play surebets for (interest, bonus turnover). I cannot answer unambiguously.

Assume we find more “sure” surebet, in which the rates are more similar one to another (that is we have the comfort).

How to bet to avoid the loss?

The first main rule you should obey:

 

Play for an amount you won’t regret to lose!

We start with checking on pages of 1 and 2 bookie, whether the rates are as high as we saw it on some other site (or as somebody told us). If yes, we log into both accounts, opening also the worksheet for calculating surebets. If  it’s confirmed we have surebet, take a piece of paper and quickly note:

Who is going to play and when?

It’s important to get used to do it every time, because it often happens we find a surebet, and it turns out the match will be one hour later! And we usually don’t take note of date and time. You can bet on at one bookie, but at another one you can’t make it and you will be  looking frantically for that match on LIVE. Then it will turn out, it is 2nd woman league from Singapore. : )

It happened many times that I was excited about some match, but when I was making notes on a paper I affirmed that the game was planned in months’ time!

Now you have to decide for how much to play When you already  know that you want to play at a  bookie 1 for  1000zł for example, what do you have to do? First of all, make sure you have enough money in another account! (Kind of obvious, but not everyone does it)  You are ready to bet.

The first thing to do is preparing  the bet for "1" at first bookie and for "X" at 2 bookie - typing stakes. You can also write on a piece of paper in the columns: bookie’s name, and below the rate, and the stake you want to bet on. But not 1000zł (for "1"), 425zł (for the "X") and 272zł (for "2") Because what will happen when you bet  for 1000zł, and the rates suddenly change, or it turns out that you have a limit at 2 bookie and you can not bet so much. (e.g. at Interwetten limits appear  very quickly). Do not try to shoot the moon in one shot.

Prepare yourself e.g. 100 zl for "1" and 42,5 zl for "2" When you have already written the stakes, click "confirm" at 1 bookie.. When the bet is accepted, it’s enough to click "confirm" at 2 bookie, and then quickly bet on "2" for 27,20 zl. We can repeat this action many times, and the results of problems appearing won't be as severe as they would be in case we play for all amount at once.

What bet should we start betting from?

Usually I start from the bookmaker who probably made a mistake in the evaluation of rates (sometimes from the most likely to win, because when any problem occur, it is better when we bet only 1.70 than only 6.25). There are exceptions to the rule, and you can learn them with time (the matter of experience). For example, a surebet:

 

z

                   1          X          2

 

1 bookie       1,70     3,50     5,00

 

2 bookie     1,50     3,80     8,00

 

3 bookie       1,55     3,75     5,50

 

4 bookie       1,70     3,45     5,25

 

5 bookie       1,70     3,40     5,40

 

I probably would start betting exactly from the rate 8,0!!! Why? We can see, that bookie 2 differ from another  by rates (they probably made a mistake in assesment) and they probably will quickly change the rates, because everyone will bet there for 8,0, while for 7,00 people have 3 bookies to choose from.

So I firstly put on for  8.0 and at once for 3.80 (I have the comfort that it is still 3.75 in case the  bookie 2 decreased the rate), and at the very end  -  1.70 rate, which I will get at one of three bookmakers almost certainly.

Last thing  we have to remember is to watch our meetings,  if they really took place, and after the end of the match we should  check if our won bet  has been positively accounted. The notification  about it we usually receive by mail.  Do not assume that bookmakers are infallible. In addition, you can be wrong sometimes, too.

 

What if the rates change?

You look for the highest rate at another bookie where you have an account (or at least you can set up an account quickly and draw the  funds) You can use sites which compare rates(you may also take it from the section"needed links") You should finish the surebet irrespective of the rate, sometimes taking a little loss into account. You have to know that not all devices for comparing rates include data about all bookmakers.  The last resort is usually checking rates at Betfair, which is usually not taken into consideration on comparing sites.

What to do if  the limit appears?

Procedure as shown above. Bet as much as you can.  Count how much you should bet by changed rates (practise it earlier by imagined rates and sudden drop of one of them) Sometimes a fast call to a friend may save you, if this colleague also has an account at a concrete  bookmaker. Ask him to bet for you quickly some amount at the same bookie. (then we will account yourselves).

Learn  in advance who among your friends do also play and where he has accounts - for  emergency situation.

A final note is that sometimes when you wait some period of time, the limit vanishes (because in the meantime, there were people betting on opposite event). And you can bet some stake, or maybe all amount. Sometimes it just happened at bwin. .

The general rule is : the closer the meeting is, the limits are higher.

PS. If the betfair odds are not stabilized, don't play surebet there, unless you know this market well, and someone is clearly wrong - you see that someone made a mistake. (Back to top)

 i. How to turn bonus using surebets? Let's imagine, we have paid to Unibet 100zl. When we add a bonus we have 200zł on account. The regulations  say that we need to do deposit and bonus circulation at the rate of 6x min before we draw a money. 1.40 (ie the amount 1200zł). What would I do?

Take, for example, a tennis match (surebet 0.47%):

 

                        1         2

 

1 bookie    1,40     2,70

 

2 bookie    1,60     2,30

 

Note that the greater chance to win is for  "1". Assume that it will like that. What does this mean?

If you bet on at the 1 bookie the rate 2.70 per 200 PLN (comparing the rules before!), and the rate  1.60 for 337.5 zł at 2 bookie, this is a good chance that after this match will be  0zł at Unibet, however at 2 bookie we will find 540 ready to pay, or  we don't need turn the bonus 6x to get it. If it fails - tough luck. Perhaps in the next surebet we will succeed(we already have 200 zl for circulation) Draw conclusions yourself.

                j. And what if I lose, well ... Sometimes it also happen for me, despite my knowledge to this topic. I'm not afraid to admit it. It ALWAYS is a possibility of the defeat, so there is a life. Defeat will almost always result from your mistake. There are also random situations  which we can't affect, such as failure on the internet, cracking,  the hurricane damaging  connections, I don't know what else:)

 

                This site is intended to describe all possible defeats which may happen to you, so that you can guard against them before you feel them for yourself. However, the theory may not always correspond with the practice. You should ALWAYS take possibility of failure into account..

Suppose that something has gone wrong and the slip-up on surebet has occured. The first question that usually comes to mind is whether we can still turn it away ? If not, so be it. If you can minimize the losses, do it! Do not suppose that if you leave something as it is, then you maybe will be in a luck. (for example, you bet on surebet not for all the options, because the rates had changed or one bookmaker had withdrawn the bet).

Unfortunately, I know from my own practice that according to Murphy's law nothing  goes well if you leave things as they are:) So do what is possible, when you STILL can do it.

However, if you have already lost, then the first thing is: don't miss this lesson - that is: get to know where made a mistake and draw conclusions from that.

If  it seems to you that you have lost very much, you might have broken one of two basic principles which I have already meant.

Play for as much as you don’t regret to lose.

DO NOT BE greedy.

And unfortunately you're alone to blame. Don’t be afraid to admit it ...

Paradoxically, the mistake you have made often gives you a knowledge you  can use to your advantage. If you don't know where was the mistake, you won't avoid id in the future. According to Horner's principle:  "the experience is directly proportional to the degree of  hardware damaging." (there: lost money)

It is worth wandering: what could you gain from your failure?

Someone can say: I lost so much dough after all! What profit could it make?

When I made my first great mistake and loss, there is nothing to hide, I was depressed for a few days. I  was obviously troubled by that.. But guess what? I did not think about giving up the betting. On the contrary!

This failure (and next, because there were already a few) gave me extra motivation to work and to show that one decline proves nothing! I will raise and because I know I act well , I’ll compensate for my losses (I know that my system works, and I have a real profit from it.) I won’t  care about the pressure of the environment and will be even more careful! I think about such benefits at least.

As it says my former boss: "It may be wrong, but it can also be good!"

I learned in my life not to worry about this kind of failures. If you become discouraged, you will incure the dead loss. Every failure is usually a turning point. For some people it is a stimulus encouraging them to work even harder (because psyche is also of great importance, don't pass it over) , but for others...well (back to the start)

Where can we look for surebets? Examples of pages looking for surebets are placed in a section "Needed links".

Summary:

If you're new to surebets, I assure that  reading this text only once in 100% is not enough to say that you know what's what :) Even if you have dwelled  upon this subject for some time (but you aren't an expert  yet), I suppose reading it one time also won't bring satisfactory result. I suggest you to come back to that text for some time and remind it yourself  rather than to overburden yourself  at once.;)

 

The proof? Try to repeat step by step what to do when you find surebet and what to follow when betting? And then compare your answer with point 7:)

Additional literature: http://www.betbrain.pl/infos/aboutSurebetStrategy (back to top)

8.What is a free bet ?

Unfortunately I found no definition, probably because it doesn't exist:).)

Freebet  means  "free bet" (presumably risk-free.) It always has a task: when we bet on and lose, we in fact don't lose money.

Freebets are not convertible for cash(we are not allowed to exchange freebets to1 cash.  Sometimes it is required to play at fixed minimal rate and only then we can make use from it. Usually, it is also limited time to use free bet.

Freebets are interpreted in different ways, but usually two forms can be found:

freebets using our funds (and no longer are used) and freebets as a token

I didn't notice that a some bookie had  this type of bonus yet. When freebets became famous, this kind was very popular .Currently tokens are offered much more often.

Freebet is a risk-free bet and it consists in betting  from our own funds.  If we win, this bet will be counted normally. But if we lose, the stake of the bet is returned (always limited in advance to some amount) in accordance with the rules given.

For example, if they had granted you freebet of this type - to 5, and you put 10 and lost, they will return you maximum amount of freebet offered, that is 5.  When you put on 3 euro and lose 3, they will return you 3. If  you win, the bet will be accounted normally, because you play for your own funds.

The second type is called a token and there is a stake to use. This is not the amount added to the balance, but a feature to implement. From such  freebet they only add a profit to your account and the token disappears.

When we make a bet for 200zl (from funds of token we were granted) at 1,50 rate and we win, then our balance is increasing for 100 zł.  Whether we win or we lose, the  token once used disappears.

The difference is subtle, but still quite significant. Certainly, the first form is more beneficial. Do you know why? :) (Back to top)

 

9.What is the Middle?

Middle  - at bookmaking it is a group of bets, in which all possibilities of results cause that we win the one coupon at least. And additionally some result entails winning more than one coupon.

Middle is something between surebets and  normal bets. If the bet ends  specific  result, you can win much, taking minor risk which depends on middle's parameters. . This can sometimes give freebet with no risk.

We can say that middle is almost-surebet plus freebet for specific result.

Example middle of the NBA, Miami - Chicago

Rates at under/over 190,5 amount 1, 91 1,91 at pinnacle, and at Betfair under/over 188,5 is 2,04 1,95. When we play at pinnacle for under 190,5 and at Betfair for Over 188, 5, we get the middle.

If it works out 189 or 190 points at this match,  we will win both two  bets.

Middles' parameters .

The middles are usually described by two numbers - the number that shows the value of the bet (we can see how the profit depends on "risked" amount), and the percentage number in brackets showing potential loss (or sometimes the winnings). The loss or winnings are amounts taken from the whole stake. The loss happens when the result doesn't meet the conditions.

In our situation the value of middle is 5.06 and we can lose 8,45 %  if 3 goals are not scored.  If 3 goals were shot, we will win the bet under 3,5 and receive the return of all amount from bet over 3,5..

We calculate stakes as in a normal surebet. Let's fix the stake for Under 100j to illustrate that subject. Then, using formula for surebets we should bet 74,77j for Over4. If  3 goals aren't scored we will  win 160j by input 174,77j -that is we will lose 14,77j.

In the other case we will receive winnings 160j and additionally return of all the stake from Over 74,77j. Total 234.77 The  profit is 60j and in relation to risk of loss of 14.77 j we get 4.06. Changing it to a rate, or adding one we have the rate 5.06 - for each unit of risky, we can gain about five times.

In this match the odds for exactly three goals are approximately 3.65, so it pays to play a middle.

There are rare cases of Middles as -0.25 and X2 and EH2 (a) where we expect a draw. In most cases, the value must be greater than 5, so as to have well middle. We have to exclude matches with a unquestionable favorite (middle value should  be greater than the rate for the draw). (Back to top)

10.Accumulation bet - AKO

Accumulation bet (AKO) is a combination of at least two events  on one ticket. Winning is equal of the product stake and all quotations on the coupon.

AKO is won when the results of all the events on the ticket are correct.

Example: 1event 2event 2.20 3.20 2.70 1.50 2.80 1.20 3.10 4.50 3event

2.20x2.80x1.20=7.39

Betting these 3 events we do it on a single ticket  at the rate of 7.39 All three of these events have to be hit. (Back to top)

11.Payments

To play on Internet bookmaker, we have first to deposit the funds into bookie's account. There are a few ways, I'm going to describe the most popular:

 a. Credit Card: Fast and fairly inexpensive. All the bookmakers accept this method of payment, but as for withdrawals it is rare situation. Using Mastercard we often can't pay in more than we have withdrawn, e.g. when we pay to bookmaker 50 euro, we are allowed to withdraw the same amount and no more. Withdrawals over this ammount are available for different methods of payments.

When we pay by credit card the bookie add a commision, this is usually from 1 to 3% of the transaction. In addition, the bank where we have the card can add extra commision e.g. for cash withdrawal by a card.

The money are automatically posted into punter's account. (Back to top)

 b. Bank transfer: little expensive, provided that the bookmaker to whom we pay money owns a bank account in Poland.

Bank transfer can be made directly in the branch or through an online account (if your bank offers such an option.)

So, method of transfer can be cheap but not the fastest, it usually takes between 1 and 5 days before the money will be on our player's account.

Online payment systems: Low cost and fast. Thanks to them we can transfer the money to several bookmakers in real time, we can also do other shopping on the internet and e.g., to send or receive money from friends. Withdrawals from bookmakers are also quick. (Back to top)

                c. Neteller: What is this?

Neteller allows a very quick and very secure transactions over the Internet. This is a very good and convenient method of payment if we use multiple bookmakers and we are keen to quickly transfer money from one to another bookmaker. Neteller allows  us to pay and withdraw deposits to/of several bookmakers. It is also important that, in most cases, making deposits and withdrawals via Neteller is free. Having a Neteller account, we have almost a wallet  for transactions on the Internet.

Moneybookers, including Polish version,  is a service similar to Neteller. As well as an account in Polish bank. You can learn more,  reading the text below.

How to open a Neteller account?

To open an account in the Neteller system please visit: http://www.neteller.com/, then go to the 'SIGNUP',  fill out the form located there and click 'Join Neteller'.  I placed the form below.

1.        Country*

2.        Region*

3.        select Province *

4.       City - enter the City*

5.       Address *

6.       Postal Code **

7.       Mr, Mrs, Ms,  Miss*

8.        First Name *

9.        Last Name *

10.   Middle Name Initial – initial* (you can not write anything)

11.   Date of Birth - (year, month, day) *

12.   Home Phone *

13.   Work Phone * -

14.   Cell phone *

15.   E-mail * - insert and re-type e-mail

On the right we choose type of phone to which Neteller has to call us when we have already  paid first deposit.

16.   Choose Password * - select a password

17.   Re-Type Password * - repeat Password

18.   Security Question * - select a question to the safety (First car, favorite sports team , etc.)

19.   Security Answer * - write an appropriate answer for question selected above

20.   Select ID Type:* - select an identity document (Passport Number, Driver License Number)

21.   Enter ID Number* - insert a serial number above the selected document

22.   Currency* - we choose the currency for Neteller account (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Canadian Dollar, British Pound).

Highlight the option 'box'  if  you have read the rules and regulations above: 'I agree to the terms included in the above statement. '

Click on the button “ Join Neteller' to create a Neteller account.

Next steps after completing the form:

2 After completing the form Neteller will send you an email with the info: Your ID number and 'Security Code' - information and the password chosen when registering will be needed to log in to your account. It is now time to log on to a Neteller (on the main webpage:  fill out the form: ID, password and security code).

3. Our account has the status “ uncertified”, so you have limited opportunities to use the account, lower limits and you can't transfer money between other Neteller's users. To obtain a certificate and to have fully open account you  have to send two e-mails to: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it e-mail address is being protected from spambots. The browser must be JavaScript enabled to view it. and This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it e-mail address is being protected from spambots.

In the e-mail we should be provided info about our Neteller account, and sent scans: an identity document (ID card, passport, driving license) - in order to verify your personal details. They should post you also reversible scan of your card.

Sample E-mail:

Welcome, Please certify my account.

Account Number: ..............

Secure ID: ..........

Thank You

 First name and Surname

 

Then you should pay money into  your Neteller account. After that  Neteller worker will call you to verify data.

 

How can I deposit money to my NETeller account?

-bank transfer

- credit card to $ 2000/month (2.9% fee, some banks may treat the transaction as a cash payment which is associated with even greater charges)

-You can withdraw money from your account in particular company (if it supports the Neteller) to Neteller. It may be paid also by your friend having money and account in Neteller.

Whom do we recommend Neteller?

We recommend exactly that method of payment for users who play at many foreign bookmakers and who care about fast, safe transfer between different bookies. 

d. Moneybookers: What is Moneybookers?

Moneybookers is a tool that allow you to send safely and receive money by e-mail - instantly. You can send money from credit cards, transfers to and from your bank account. We can use moneybookers for sending money to somebody else (to regulate debts with your acquaintance, pay for shopping or auctions online)  or when someone would like to send us a money. it will be useful for us mainly for payments and withdrawals funds from bookmakers, because majority of them makes this option  available.

How to register?

Moneybookers operates in the international market, their service is also suitable for Polish users. They have Polish version of website, and thanks to the Polish bank account the payment into our account is rather  quick.

To register, simply visit the Moneybookers and choose ” register”. Registration is simple and you will be conducted through it quickly.

What benefits from using  Moneybookers are?

Security: with Moneybookers, when shopping online, you do not have to give credit card information. Moneybookers can process your payment safely.

Convenience:  simply send the payment to the recipient's email account. It eliminates difficulties associated with complicated forms of bank drafts and discomfort with sending and depositing cheques.

Speed: with Moneyookers you can send and receive payments in internet time-real time.

No borders: as truly international product, Moneybookers is the best and cheapest way of cross-border transfer money.

How do I send money to the  account with Moneybookers?

Money can be sent by going to the Send Money tab and following the instructions. It is possible to deposit money by transfer to the Polish bank, as well as payment by card. Somebody can also send money to us to the e-mail address given at Moneybookers. To make a payment simply to have the recipient e-mail address.

We recommend creating an account with Moneybookers for people betting on the internet. This is a very fast and convenient way to deposit money and withdrawal of deposits.

 e. Visa Electron debit cards: The next good way, fast and cheap, however, remember that payment are available for cards which have their expiry date and secure number on the other side. Money will be automatically send into punter's account. Commission of payment is 1-3%.

Not all bookies support this method of payment. (Back to top)

 f. Przelewy 24: This is one of more popular ways of paying money to bookmakers, poker rooms or casinos (online) among Polish players.

 Przelewy 24 enables us to make payment quickly and safely.  It is a system allowing payments on the Internet seven days a week, 24 hours a day, the system integrated with several Polish banks and their online applications, so that your transaction is extremely easy, and the whole operation takes no more than 5 minutes. Via Przelewy24 you can have your money transferred such with the following banks: Bank BPH, Millennium, Nordea Bank Environment, Pekao SA, BGZ (Integrum), BZ WBK, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Fortis Bank, ING Bank, Invest Bank, Kredyt Bank, Lukas Bank, mBank, Multibank , PKO BP, Inteligo.

Payments made to the bookmakers which we present on our website are secure, tested by us many times. So, all the options described above are well-known for us and if you have any questions about payment, please contact us or contact directly with a bookmaker to whom you want to deposit or withdraw money. (back to top)

12.Get into the game.  If you reach the end of this article, then you have to to wander what your purpose is.  At the beginning we consider several issues. Two are required:

-what amounts of cash do you have?

-What  system do you want to play?

-What REAL profit (possible to reach) would you like to make?

-At what time do you want to achieve your goal?

At the beginning 500 zl should be enough. 500zł.

You should choose some strategy of playing. There are a wholel lot of systems, and most people think they know the best one. Examples can be found in section game systems. How many players so many experts:)

The system is good, when profitable. The system is very good, when it is profitable optimal. Each player chooses their own system with time. The matter is to fix it and to controll if it confirms.

I am primarily a mathematician and a specialist in surebets.

You don't need to know a lot about sport in order to make money on betting.

 

Let's sum up what we have already said in section "Bookmakers' World".

Bookmakers correctly exposing odds are mathematically prevailing over us. If they give the rates improperly, then we have the upper hand. Surebets appears in the result of giving the rates incorrectly.  So,  thanks to surebets we have the advantage.    But surebets give a small profit ... So how do we use surebets for earning more, but not knowing a lof of  sports?

The answer is simple - bonuses at bookmakers! (Back to top)